关于统计数据的不确定性传播对公众信任的影响
John Kerr1,2, Anne-Marthe van der Bles3, Sarah Dryhurst1,4
1Winton Centre for Risk & Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1TN, UK.
Royal Society open science
|November 29, 2023
概括
将COVID-19数据的数值范围与统计不确定性的沟通略有降低了对数字的信任,但不是来源. 量化不确定性比简单地说它存在更好,以保持信誉.
科学领域:
- 统计 统计 统计 统计
- 沟通研究 沟通研究
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 传达统计不确定性是一个挑战,特别是在高风险的情况下.
- 人们担心,对不确定性的透明度可能会削弱对数据或其来源的信任.
研究的目的:
- 调查统计不确定性传播对感知可信度的影响.
- 为了比较量化的不确定性 (数值范围) 与未量化的不确定性陈述的影响.
主要方法:
- 进行了两项大型在线调查实验 (研究1:N=10,519;研究2:N=2,309).
- 参与者获得了COVID-19统计数据,并与不同程度的不确定性进行了沟通.
- 测量了统计数据及其来源的可信度.
主要成果:
- 使用数字范围来交流目前和未来的COVID-19统计数据的不确定性略有降低了数字的可信度.
- 通过数字范围传达不确定性并没有影响信息源的可信度.
- 在没有量化的情况下指出不确定性的存在,降低了对数字及其来源的信任.
结论:
- 沟通者可以透明地呈现统计不确定性,特别是使用数值范围,而不会显著损害来源的可信度.
- 建议在可能的情况下量化不确定性,而不是仅仅说明其存在,以保持信任.
- 基于证据的沟通策略可以有效地管理公众对统计不确定性的看法.
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