定量安全目标对减少道路死亡事故的影响:对治理计划的实证支持
Haizhou Cui1, Yuliang Guo2, Yuchen Li3
1School of Economics, University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia.
Frontiers in public health
|November 29, 2023
概括
设定雄心勃勃的道路安全目标可能会阻碍,而不是帮助减少死亡人数. 过于雄心勃勃的定量安全目标不太可能完成,影响公共卫生目标.
科学领域:
- 道路安全研究 道路安全研究
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
- 运输管理 运输管理
背景情况:
- 定量目标设定对于提高道路安全绩效至关重要.
- 之前关于安全目标有效性的研究已经产生了不同的结果.
- 需要更多关于安全目标与结果之间的关系的经验证据.
研究的目的:
- 调查定量道路安全目标属性对其成功的影响.
- 确定目标的雄心壮志和持续时间是否会影响完成率和状态.
- 为决策者提供有效的道路安全目标设定方面的见解.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自34个经合组织成员国的20年面板数据.
- 使用非线性和线性面板模型进行分析.
- 检查了目标属性 (野心,持续时间) 和成功 (完成) 之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 更高的目标雄心与更低的完成概率和速度有关.
- 在目标持续时间和完成率之间没有发现显著的关联.
- 过于雄心勃勃的目标可能会对道路安全性能和减少死亡人数产生负面影响.
结论:
- 过于雄心勃勃的道路安全目标可能会产生反作用.
- 目标设定需要仔细考虑野心水平,以获得有效的公共卫生结果.
- 调查结果为道路安全治理和规划的政策制定者提供参考资料.
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