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对印尼进口肉类和海鲜的近乎理想的需求系统模型进行了错误纠正的线性近似

David Forgenie¹, Nikmatul Khoiriyah², Meera Mahase-Forgenie³

¹Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Faculty of Food and Agriculture, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus, Trinidad.

|November 29, 2023

概括

消费者并不总是立即适应经济变化. 这项研究使用了经过纠错的线性近似几乎理想需求系统 (EC-LAAIDS) 模型来分析印度尼西亚的肉类和海鲜进口需求,发现各种调整速度和奢品的良好状态.

科学领域:

农业经济学农业经济学
计量经济学计量经济学
消费需求分析消费需求分析

背景情况:

静态需求模型假设消费者立即适应经济冲击,这往往是不现实的.
了解进口需求动态对于贸易政策和市场分析至关重要.

研究的目的:

分析印尼的肉类和海鲜进口需求,使用经过纠错的线性近似几乎理想需求系统 (EC-LAAIDS) 模型.
调查短期和长期调整动态,弹性和替代模式.

主要方法:

印度尼西亚从1976年到2020年使用的年度数据.
采用了一个经过纠错的线性近似几乎理想的需求系统 (EC-LAAIDS) 模型.
计算了收入弹性,价格弹性和交叉价格弹性.

主要成果:

同质性和对称性限制在EC-LAAIDS模型中存在,但在长期模型中没有.
羊肉对平衡的调整速度最慢;其他肉类和海鲜的调整速度较为缓慢.
进口牛肉是一种短期的奢品,对收入变化有很强的反应. 从长远来看,大多数进口肉类都是奢品,除了海鲜和牛肉.
对于大多数商品,短期需求是不弹性的,除了牛肉的弹性. 长期需求对于牛肉和猪肉是弹性的,对于其他肉类是不弹性的.
大多数情况下,在进口商品之间发现了替代关系.

结论:

该EC-LAAIDS模型为分析进口需求提供了一个比静态模型更现实的框架.
在不同的肉类和海鲜产品中,调整速度和需求弹性差异很大.
调查结果表明,潜在的政策干预,如生产补贴,可以影响进口动态.

关键词:

弹性弹性弹性弹性错误纠正 - 纠正错误的方法进口的肉类进口印度尼西亚印度尼西亚印度尼西亚海鲜海鲜海鲜海鲜海鲜

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