汇款,汇率和E7经济体的经济增长之间的联系:频域分析
Khalid Usman1,2
1School of Economics and Management, Guangzhou City Construction College, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, China.
Heliyon
|November 29, 2023
概括
经济增长和农业产出在E7经济体中显示出单向因果关系. 贸易,汇款和汇率也与农业产量相关,影响经济战略.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 了解农业生产的驱动因素对于新兴经济体的经济发展至关重要.
- E7经济体 (俄罗斯,印度尼西亚,墨西哥,中国,印度,巴西,土耳其) 代表具有独特经济结构的重要新兴市场.
- 现有的文献已经探索了影响农业产量的各种因素,但频率领域的因果关系仍然不太了解.
研究的目的:
- 调查经济增长 (GDP),贸易开放,汇款,汇率和E7经济体农业产出之间的因果关系.
- 应用时间和频率领域的格兰杰因果关系测试来发现复杂的相互依赖关系.
- 为决策者提供经验证据,帮助他们制定有效的经济战略.
主要方法:
- 关于E7经济体的1990-2020年数据.
- 杜米特雷斯库和赫林时间域格兰杰因果关系测试.
- 克鲁克斯和鲁森斯频率域格兰杰因果关系分析.
主要成果:
- 经济增长 (GDP) 与农业在时间域 (高达3个时差) 之间没有发现显著的因果关系.
- 从农业到经济增长存在单向因果关系,时间域的第一级差异.
- 频域分析揭示了经济增长,贸易,汇款和农业产出之间的两种相关性,因果关系在不同频率上有所不同.
结论:
- 经济增长和农业之间的关系是微妙的,在时间和频率领域观察到不同的因果方向.
- 贸易开放,汇款和汇率是与E7经济体农业产出相关的重要因素.
- 调查结果为在这些新兴市场制定量身定制的短期,中期和长期经济政策提供了务实的见解.
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