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西班牙时间变化的热冷死亡率关联的驱动因素:一项纵向观察性研究
Hicham Achebak1, Grégoire Rey2, Simon J Lloyd3
1Inserm, France Cohortes, Paris, France; ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain.
Environment international
|November 29, 2023
概括
在西班牙,空调和供暖等社会适应措施显著降低了极端温度导致的死亡风险. 这些发现对于制定有效的气候变化健康适应政策至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 研究表明,随着时间的推移,高温和低温的死亡率有所降低,但适应的驱动因素仍然不清楚.
- 调查影响西班牙 (1980-2018) 易受温度相关死亡率影响的人口和社会经济因素.
研究的目的:
- 分析西班牙热冷相关死亡率下降的人口和社会经济驱动因素.
- 了解社会适应在减轻温度相关健康风险方面的作用.
主要方法:
- 利用省级的死亡率,温度和14个上下文指标 (1980-2018) 的数据.
- 采用分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNM) 和多层空间时间元回归的准波桑回归.
- 分别分析了热 (六月至九月) 和寒冷 (十月至五月) 死亡期的关联.
主要成果:
- 尽管气温上升,但热和冷的死亡风险下降.
- 空调 (AC) 独立地降低了与热有关的死亡率,导致~28.6%的下降.
- 加热独立地减少了与寒冷有关的死亡率,约占减少的38.3%.
- 人口老龄化减轻了与感冒有关的死亡率的下降.
结论:
- 空调和供暖是有效的社会适应极端温度.
- 这些发现对气候变化健康适应政策和影响预测有重大影响.
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