可归因于化石燃料的空气污染死亡人数:观察和建模研究
Jos Lelieveld1,2, Andy Haines3, Richard Burnett4
1Atmospheric Chemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany jos.lelieveld@mpic.de.
概括
化石燃料造成的空气污染每年导致513万个过度死亡,这突显了向可再生能源过渡的显著健康益处. 逐步淘汰化石燃料是朝着气候中立和改善全球健康的关键一步.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 化石燃料造成的空气污染是全球主要的健康风险.
- 心脏代谢疾病,中风和COPD是导致空气污染相关死亡的主要原因.
- 以前的研究可能低估了化石燃料空气污染对死亡率的全部负担.
研究的目的:
- 量化与化石燃料空气污染相关的所有原因和特定原因死亡.
- 评估用可再生能源取代化石燃料带来的潜在健康益处.
- 通过先进的建模和全面的数据来更新估计.
主要方法:
- 使用了更新的大气组成模型和新的相对风险模型.
- 集成的基于卫星的细颗粒物和人口分布的数据.
- 采用了2019年全球疾病负担研究的数据进行全面分析.
主要成果:
- 据估计,全球每年有834万多人死于细颗粒物和臭氧空气污染.
- 每年有513万个过度死亡归因于化石燃料的使用,这表明潜在的避免.
- 发现心脏代谢状况 (30%的缺血性心脏病) 和中风 (16%) 是主要原因,COPD和潜在的高血压/神经退行性疾病有着显著的贡献.
结论:
- 逐步淘汰化石燃料是改善公共卫生和到2050年实现气候中立性的重要干预措施.
- 用可再生能源取代化石燃料可以消除空气污染作为主要的环境健康风险.
- 即使部分减少化石燃料排放,也可以实现显著的健康益处.
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