相关实验视频
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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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将非理性行为整合到洪水风险模型中,以测试政策干预的结果
Linda Geaves1, Jim Hall2, Edmund Penning-Rowsell Obe2
1Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|November 29, 2023
概括
房主面临越来越多的洪水风险. 将行为经济学 (前景理论) 纳入洪水风险政策设计,而不是仅仅是理性模型 (预期货币价值),可以提高缓解采用的公平性和效率.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 公共政策公共政策.
背景情况:
- 房主越来越负责物业层面的洪水风险管理.
- 面临风险的消费者决策往往是不理性的和不理想的.
- 现有政策假设财政和减缓采用之间的线性关系.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种方法,使用预期货币价值 (EMV) 和前景理论 (PT) 模型来比较洪水减缓的采用.
- 评估行为方面如何影响家庭洪水风险管理决策.
- 为制定更公平,更有效的洪水风险政策设计提供信息.
主要方法:
- 开发一个基于EMV和PT框架的基于代理的模型.
- 模型应用于洪水再保险保单.
- 模型输出与观察到的人类行为的比较.
主要成果:
- 展望理论 (PT) 模型与EMV模型相比,与观察到的家庭行为显示出更大的一致性.
- 行为经济学提供了对洪水风险减轻决策的更现实的理解.
- 基于合理假设的补贴减缓可能比预期的效果更低.
结论:
- 洪水风险管理的政策工具应该整合行为洞察力,特别是前景理论.
- 考虑"非理性"的决策,提高了洪水风险政策的公平性和效率.
- 未来的政策设计可以从传统的理性模型与行为框架的结合中受益.
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