在生态学和进化学中考虑定量不确定性的建议.
Emily G Simmonds1, Kwaku P Adjei2, Benjamin Cretois3
1The Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway; Institute for Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway; Institute of Ecology and Evolution, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK.
Trends in ecology & evolution
|November 29, 2023
概括
生态和进化研究往往缺乏对模型不确定性的完整报告. 解决这个问题需要更好的统计方法,更清晰的指标,并考虑所有不确定性来源,以得出坚实的科学结论.
科学领域:
- 生态学和进化生物学.
- 生态建模 生态建模
- 进化的建模 进化建模
背景情况:
- 在生态和进化研究中,与模型相关的不确定性不一致的报告很普遍.
- 关键障碍包括对参数不确定性的狭关注,不清楚的指标,以及对不确定性传播的认识不足.
研究的目的:
- 发现生态和进化研究中不确定性报告的缺陷.
- 提出可行的策略,以提高不确定性报告的完整性和一致性.
主要方法:
- 对生态和进化建模当前实践的分析.
- 审查其他科学学科的统计解决方案和最佳实践.
主要成果:
- 确定了全面不确定性报告的三个主要障碍:关注参数不确定性,模糊指标和有限的传播意识.
- 突出现有的统计方法和适用于生态和进化建模的跨学科实践.
结论:
- 在生态学和进化学中,不确定性报告可以得到显著增强.
- 建议包括更广泛地应用统计解决方案,采用跨学科的最佳实践,并制定特定领域的标准.
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