一种生理学方法,用于评估人类在不断变化的气候环境中对热的生存能力和生存能力
Jennifer Vanos1, Gisel Guzman-Echavarria2, Jane W Baldwin3,4
1School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA. jvanos@asu.edu.
Nature communications
|November 29, 2023
概括
当前的热生存模型高估了安全性. 这项研究使用人类生理学揭示了较低的生存极限,特别是在老年人中,突出了极端高温事件带来的风险.
科学领域:
- 环境生理学环境生理学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 人类的生存能力.
背景情况:
- 目前对人类在极端高温下生存能力的预测通常依赖于一个固定的35°C湿球温度 (Tw) 值.
- 这些模型通常不整合人类生理学的变化,可能低估了风险.
- 准确的评估需要考虑年龄,阳光照射和生理反应等因素.
研究的目的:
- 改进人类生存率的估计,并在当前和未来的气候条件下引入适居性限制.
- 应用生理和生物物理原理来解释人类反应的变化.
- 为了比较基于生理学的极限与传统的35°CTw值.
主要方法:
- 利用生理和生物物理原理来建模热应激反应.
- 考虑到阳光/阴影条件的年轻人和老年人的计算生存率和生存能力限制.
- 与标准的35°CTw值比较最新的,基于生理学的极限.
主要成果:
- 基于生理学的生存限值明显低于35°C的值,特别是在热干的条件下.
- 更新的极限范围从Tw~25.8-34.1°C (年轻) 和~21.9-33.7°C (老),表明严重低估了风险.
- 生命能力 (安全活动水平) 随着年龄,阳光照射和湿度的增加而下降,而年龄是最关键的因素.
结论:
- 传统的35°CTw值显著低估了与热量相关的风险,特别是在脆弱人群中.
- 在降低安全活动水平方面,年龄是一个比变暖更为关键的因素,强调需要针对年龄特定的热适应策略.
- 未来的气候预测必须包含详细的生理反应,以准确地评估人类的生存能力和生存能力.
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