在暂时死亡冲击期间解释预期寿命的变化
1California Center for Population Research (CCPR), University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA 90095.
Demographic research
|November 30, 2023
概括
在死亡冲击期间的预期寿命变化可以重新解释. 衰退反映了受影响死亡队列的年龄标准化寿命减少,而不仅仅是队列寿命差异.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 死亡率 科学 科学 死亡率 科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 预期寿命是死亡率的一个关键指标,但在流行病等突然死亡率冲击期间,其解释会受到影响.
- 预期寿命的世俗趋势可能会掩盖临时死亡事件的影响.
- 现有的对预期寿命变化的解释不足以理解死亡率冲击.
研究的目的:
- 为解释死亡率冲击期间预期寿命变化提供一个新的视角.
- 为了澄清预期寿命下降在暂时,严重的死亡事件的背景下意味着什么.
- 为评估死亡冲击的影响提供更准确的指标.
主要方法:
- 对周期寿命表模型的分析.
- 合成队列和静止人口模型的比较.
- 基于人口模型的预期寿命差异的重新解释.
主要成果:
- 预期寿命差异通常被视为队列寿命变化.
- 另一种解释认为预期寿命的变化是死亡队列中的过早死亡.
- 这种替代解释更适合临时死亡率冲击.
结论:
- 死亡冲击期间预期寿命的下降代表了死亡者寿命的年龄标准化减少.
- 这一指标比传统解释更清楚地了解死亡率冲击影响.
- 准确的解释至关重要,因为预期寿命被广泛用于报告死亡率趋势.
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