国家对二氧化碳排放的依赖及其对气候敏感性的影响
Haozhe He1, Ryan J Kramer2,3, Brian J Soden1
1Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA.
概括
由于二氧化碳 (CO2) 翻倍而产生的瞬间辐射强迫不是恒定的. 它对气候基本状态的依赖,特别是平流层的冷却,影响气候敏感性和模型差异.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 大气物理
- 辐射转移
背景情况:
- 目前的气候模型假定二氧化碳的翻倍是恒定的瞬间辐射强迫 (IRF).
- 气候敏感度的变化归因于辐射反和它们的基态依赖.
研究的目的:
- 调查恒定IRF的假设.
- 确定依赖基础状态对IRF和气候敏感性的影响.
- 解释气候敏感性的模型间传播.
主要方法:
- 辐射强迫计算的分析
- 对气候模型输出进行检查.
- 对基础状态对IRF的影响的评估.
主要成果:
- IRF不是恒定的,它取决于气候基础状态.
- 每次二氧化碳的翻倍,IRF增加了约25%.
- 由于平流层的冷却,自工业化前时代以来,IRF已经上升了10%左右.
- 基态依赖解释了IRF中50%的模型间差异.
结论:
- 由于IRF的不恒定性质挑战了现有的气候敏感性假设.
- 层层冷却是影响IRF和气候敏感性的关键因素.
- 解决基准状态的依赖对于减少气候模型的不确定性至关重要.
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