了解风险研究中知识不足和高度不确定性的影响
1Robins School of Business, University of Richmond, Richmond, Virginia, USA.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|November 30, 2023
概括
这项研究解决了风险分析挑战,知识有限,不确定性很高. 它为风险分析师提供指导,以承认这些因素,保持其研究的完整性和可信性.
科学领域:
- 风险分析和风险管理
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
- 不确定性定量化 不确定性定量化
背景情况:
- 风险分析在各个行业至关重要,特别是在知识不足和不确定性很高的情况下.
- 在这些条件下,风险研究的完整性和可信性即使是高质量的分析也可能受到挑战.
- 现有的文献为风险分析师提供了有限的指导,这些风险分析师在低知识,高不确定性环境中工作.
研究的目的:
- 探索风险研究中知识不足和高度不确定性的影响.
- 为风险分析师提供关于承认这些具有挑战性的特征的指导.
- 在不确定的环境中提高风险评估的完整性和可信性.
主要方法:
- 关于风险分析,完整性和可信度的文献综述.
- 探索低知识和高不确定性的理论含义.
- 在风险研究中承认不确定性的概念框架开发.
主要成果:
- 鉴定了风险分析中的特定挑战,原因是知识不足和高度不确定性.
- 强调了风险评估对风险评估的完整性和可信度的影响.
- 建议风险分析师采取主动解决这些因素的战略.
结论:
- 风险分析师需要实际指导来管理低知识和高不确定性.
- 承认这些局限性是保持对风险研究的信任的关键.
- 进一步的研究可以完善在重大不确定性下进行风险评估的方法.
相关概念视频
01:23Types of Biopharmaceutical Studies: Controlled and Non-Controlled Approaches
130
Biopharmaceutical studies constitute a vital field aiming to enhance drug delivery methods and refine therapeutic approaches, drawing upon diverse interdisciplinary knowledge. In research methodologies, the choice between controlled and non-controlled studies significantly influences the study's reliability and accuracy.
Non-controlled studies, commonly employed for initial exploration, lack a control group, rendering them susceptible to biases and external influences. In contrast,...
Non-controlled studies, commonly employed for initial exploration, lack a control group, rendering them susceptible to biases and external influences. In contrast,...
130
00:59Propagation of Uncertainty from Random Error
699
An experiment often consists of more than a single step. In this case, measurements at each step give rise to uncertainty. Because the measurements occur in successive steps, the uncertainty in one step necessarily contributes to that in the subsequent step. As we perform statistical analysis on these types of experiments, we must learn to account for the propagation of uncertainty from one step to the next. The propagation of uncertainty depends on the type of arithmetic operation performed on...
699
00:59Uncertainty: Overview
563
In analytical chemistry, we often perform repetitive measurements to detect and minimize inaccuracies caused by both determinate and indeterminate errors. Despite the cares we take, the presence of random errors means that repeated measurements almost never have exactly the same magnitude. The collective difference between these measurements - observed values - and the estimated or expected value is called uncertainty. Uncertainty is conventionally written after the estimated or expected value.
563
01:25Strategies for Assessing and Addressing Confounding
102
Confounding is a critical issue in epidemiological studies, often leading to misleading conclusions about associations between exposures and outcomes. It occurs when the relationship between the exposure and the outcome is mixed with the effects of other factors that influence the outcome. Given that, addressing confounding is of high importance for drawing accurate inferences in research.
Confounding can be addressed at both the design phase of a study and through analytical methods after data...
Confounding can be addressed at both the design phase of a study and through analytical methods after data...
102
01:13Accuracy and Errors in Hypothesis Testing
201
Hypothesis testing is a fundamental statistical tool that begins with the assumption that the null hypothesis H0 is true. During this process, two types of errors can occur: Type I and Type II. A Type I error refers to the incorrect rejection of a true null hypothesis, while a Type II error involves the failure to reject a false null hypothesis.
In hypothesis testing, the probability of making a Type I error, denoted as α, is commonly set at 0.05. This significance level indicates a 5%...
In hypothesis testing, the probability of making a Type I error, denoted as α, is commonly set at 0.05. This significance level indicates a 5%...
201
01:12Relative Risk
183
Relative risk (RR) is a statistical measure commonly used in epidemiology to compare the likelihood of a particular event occurring between two groups. This metric is important for evaluating the relationship between exposure to a specific risk factor and the probability of a particular outcome. It plays a crucial role in medical research, public health studies, and risk assessment. Relative risk quantifies how much more (or less) likely an event is to occur in an exposed group compared to an...
183