在空间传染病传播模型中使用可变查方法
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Calgary, University Drive NW, Calgary, T2N 1N4, Canada; Faculty of Institute of Statistical Research and Training, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh.
Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology
|December 2, 2023
概括
这项研究对传染病模型的可变选择方法进行了比较. 之前的尖和碎片方法在模拟疾病传播方面表现出卓越的准确性和计算效率.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 计算统计学 计算统计学
背景情况:
- 个人级别的模型提高了对传染病传播的理解.
- 纳入空间位置和疫苗接种状况等共变量至关重要.
- 对于具有许多共变量的复杂模型,需要有效的变量选择方法.
研究的目的:
- 探索和开发适应多种共变量的个体级传染病模型的方法.
- 为了提高模型性能,可解释性,并减少计算负担.
- 为了比较各种变量选择技术的有效性.
主要方法:
- 应用并比较贝叶斯的两阶段最小绝对收缩和选择运算符 (Lasso),基于Akaike信息标准 (AIC) 的阶段性选择,尖峰和板块先验和随机变量选择 (提升).
- 评估方法使用模拟数据集和真实世界数据从英国2001年口疫爆发.
主要成果:
- 大多数变量选择方法的表现始终很好.
- 与其他方法相比,贝叶斯的双阶段拉索方法表现较弱.
- 尖和板的先验实现了高精度和计算效率.
结论:
- 在传染病建模中的变量选择中,建议采用尖和板块先验方法.
- 这种方法提供了准确性和计算速度的平衡.
- 有效的变量选择是改善传染病模型实用性的关键.
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