模拟和预测中国亚热带森林树种组成的变化,使用非线性微分方程系统模型
Biyong Ji1,2,3, Kunyong Yu1,3, Fan Wang1,3
1College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China.
Frontiers in plant science
|December 4, 2023
概括
中国的亚热带森林在30年间从针叶树到宽叶树的明显转变. 一个新的模型预测了这种森林继承趋势,表明物种组成的稳定性越来越高.
科学领域:
- 森林生态 森林生态
- 生态建模 生态建模
- 植物社区动态 植物社区动态
背景情况:
- 森林继承涉及树木物种组成的重大变化.
- 中国的亚热带森林经历了针叶树的显著下降和宽叶物种的增加.
- 了解这些变化对于森林管理和保护至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析中国江省树木物种组成的长期变化.
- 用一种新的非线性差异方程系统 (NDES) 建模森林继承趋势.
- 预测未来松树,树和宽叶树的相对丰度的变化.
主要方法:
- 利用了七个国家森林库存数据集,涵盖了30年的时间 (1989-2019).
- 根据生物质比例将树种分类为松树,树和宽叶树群.
- 开发并应用了一种新的非线性差异方程系统 (NDES) 模型,用于六个连续的调查时期.
主要成果:
- 最初的时期 (1989-1999) 显示树种丰富度波动,没有一致的模式.
- 后来的时期 (1999-2019) 显示出一贯的趋势,松树和树的丰富性下降,宽叶的丰富性增加.
- 随着时间的推移,这种越来越多的宽叶主导的趋势变得越来越稳定,并没有预计针叶树群的灭绝.
结论:
- 这项研究证实,在江的亚热带雨林中,大叶树的占主导地位发生了显著而稳定的转变.
- 开发的NDES模型准确地预测了森林继承趋势,并有助于理解物种组成动态.
- 该模型的预测能力为生态预测和森林管理策略提供了宝贵的见解.
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