在物种分布模型中选择气候变量:韩国的案例研究
Tae-Sung Kwon1, Dae-Seong Lee2, Won Il Choi3
1Alpha Insect Diversity Lab, Nowon, Seoul, 01746, Republic of Korea.
International journal of biometeorology
|December 4, 2023
概括
变量选择在气候变化下显著影响物种分布模型. 将降水与温度相连增加了预测物种丰富性的不确定性,突出了需要仔细选择模型变量.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 生物地理学 生物地理学 生物地理学
背景情况:
- 准确预测由于气候变化导致的物种分布变化对于保护至关重要.
- 在物种分布模型 (SDM) 中的变量选择会影响预测的准确性和可靠性.
- 作为森林生态系统生态变化的有效指标.
研究的目的:
- 评估变量选择对气候变化下的物种分布模型的影响.
- 为了比较仅温度的预测性能与物种分布的温度和降水模型.
- 评估与预测物种丰富度和组装营业额相关的不确定性.
主要方法:
- 收集了来自韩国343个森林地区的物种数据 (2006-2009).
- 利用通用添加模型 (GAMs) 预测16种的未来分布.
- 构建了四个GAM:仅温度,温度与降水相互作用,以及温度和降水模型的两个变化.
主要成果:
- 大多数物种显示,仅温度和组合气候模型之间的分布预测相似.
- 仅温度和组合气候模型之间的物种丰富性预测有显著差异,这表明不确定性更高.
- 预计组装周转率随着温度下降和海拔上升而增加,与现有研究一致.
结论:
- 将降水变量与温度一起纳入可以增加预测物种丰富性的不确定性.
- 预测气候变化下的生物的分布和多样性是固有的不确定性,由于模型的变量灵敏度.
- 仔细考虑解释变量对于面对气候变化的强大物种分布建模至关重要.
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