探索社会经济背景和自然灾害之间的相互作用,对人类人口的流离失所和流离失所产生影响
Michele Ronco1, José María Tárraga2, Jordi Muñoz2
1Image Processing Laboratory (IPL), Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain. michele.ronco@uv.es.
Nature communications
|December 4, 2023
概括
气候变化推动了灾难的流离失所. 恶劣的生活条件和大雨是关键因素,突出了不均的脆弱性和需要更好的适应计划.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 社会科学 社会科学 社会科学
- 数据科学是数据科学.
背景情况:
- 气候变化加剧了极端天气事件,导致了大量的人类流离失所.
- 了解内部流离失所模式对于有效的灾害应对和规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过可解释的机器学习来模拟和理解灾难引起的内部流离失所.
- 确定流离失所的主要环境,社会和经济驱动因素.
- 量化对气候相关危害的不同脆弱性.
主要方法:
- 开发一个全球灾害引发的移动数据库 (2016-2021年).
- 应用可解释的机器学习 (ML) 技术,包括Shapley值和基于因果关系的方法.
- 环境,社会和经济因素的整合用于预测建模.
主要成果:
- 流离失所主要与家庭状况不佳和强烈的降雨有关.
- 可解释的ML模型揭示了导致流离失所的因素的相互作用.
- 经验证实了对气候相关灾害的脆弱性差异的证据.
结论:
- 恶劣的生活条件和强烈的降雨是气候引起的流离失所的重要驱动因素.
- 量化脆弱性对于有针对性的缓解和适应战略至关重要.
- 可解释的ML为复杂的移位动态提供了宝贵的见解.
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