堕胎自由化是否加快了生育率的下降? 全球时间序列分析
Juan J Fernández1, Dácil Juif2
1Universidad Carlos III of Madrid, Madrid, Spain. jjfgonza@clio.uc3m.es.
European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie
|December 5, 2023
概括
全球计划生育趋势显示生育率下降和对堕胎的自由化. 这项研究发现,虽然教育和避孕对生育有影响,但堕胎自由化对全球总生育率没有显著,强有力的影响.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 全球计划生育的特点有两个主要趋势:生育率下降和第二次世界大战以来堕胎自由化的增加.
- 堕胎自由化和生育率下降之间的关系在人口统计研究中仍然是一个有争议的话题,有相互矛盾的预测.
- 现有的文献提出了相反的观点:一些人认为自由堕胎减少了生育能力,而另一些人则认为影响微不足道.
研究的目的:
- 量化分析堕胎政策自由化与总生育率变化之间的全球关系.
- 解决尚未解决的问题,即堕胎自由化是否会显著影响生育趋势.
- 判断人口学文献中关于堕胎政策和生育率的相互矛盾的假设.
主要方法:
- 使用双向固定效应模型进行了全面的全球定量分析.
- 利用来自独立研究小组的三个不同的堕胎政策自由主义指标.
- 分析了从1970年到2019年跨越185个独立国家的数据.
主要成果:
- 生育率与平均公共教育水平和使用替代避孕方法有明显的关联.
- 尽管采用了多个模型规范和堕胎政策指标,但堕胎改革与总生育率变化没有强有力的关联.
- 该研究发现,堕胎政策的自由化与国家生育率的变化之间没有一致的,有意义的联系.
结论:
- 从政策变化来衡量,堕胎自由化似乎不是全球生育率趋势的强有力的决定因素.
- 教育和避孕药使用等因素与生育率变化的关联比堕胎政策改革更强.
- 这些发现表明,堕胎自由化对生育能力的影响可能是可以忽略不计的或高度取决于环境,这与一些现有理论相反.
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