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巴基斯坦天然气消费前景:基于LMDI-STIRPAT PLSR框架

Ibrar H Lund¹, Faheemullah Shaikh^2,3, Khanji Harijan⁴

¹Directorate of Postgraduate Studies, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology Jamshoro, Jamshoro, 76062, Sindh, Pakistan.

Environmental science and pollution research international

|December 5, 2023

概括

巴基斯坦巴基斯坦巴基斯坦.

科学领域:

能源经济学能源经济学
环境科学环境科学
应用数学应用数学应用数学

背景情况:

天然气 (NG) 是巴基斯坦初级能源消费的重要组成部分.
国内储备的枯竭和需求的增加造成了供需失衡.
了解NG消费驱动因素对于能源政策至关重要.

研究的目的:

调查影响巴基斯坦天然气消费的关键因素.
根据各种发展情景预测未来的天然气消耗.
为平衡能源供需的战略提供信息.

主要方法:

使用LMDI-STIRPAT PLSR框架来分析NG消费驱动因素.
采用计量经济模型来预测未来的天然气消费趋势.
评估了经济增长,能源结构和人口对NG需求的影响.

主要成果:

化石能源结构和人均国内生产总值被确定为天然气消费最重要的驱动因素.
非清洁能源结构,能源强度和人口也影响了NG需求.
高发展情景预测,天然气消耗量为42.107 MTOE,是基线的两倍.
预计本土天然气产量将下降,而需求预计将增加.

结论:

迫切需要优化战略来解决巴基斯坦日益增长的天然气供需差距.
政策干预应侧重于减轻化石能源结构和经济增长等关键驱动因素的影响.
长期的能源安全需要积极的规划和可持续的能源解决方案.

关键词:

预测预测预测预测在 LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR 框架中,天然气的消费自然气的消费.巴基斯坦巴基斯坦巴基斯坦.供应需求的关系是

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