关于近地表温度动态在一个变暖的世界中的持续性
Francisco Estrada1,2,3, Pierre Perron4, Yohei Yamamoto5,6
1Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Circuito Exterior, Mexico DF, Mexico.
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
|December 5, 2023
概括
气候变化不会改变表面温度的持久性. 我们的分析显示,温度持久性的明显变化是趋势和噪音的产物,而不是气候行为的实际变化.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 统计建模 统计建模
- 时间序列分析时间序列分析
背景情况:
- 气候变化研究通常分析温度持久性,但趋势和噪音可能会影响结果.
- 温暖时期持续时间指数 (WSDI) 可能会高估由于温度上升而导致的持续时间.
研究的目的:
- 准确评估气候变化下的表面温度持久性.
- 要区分真正的持久性和由趋势和噪音引起的文物.
主要方法:
- 利用全球网格的陆地和海洋温度数据.
- 采用状态空间模型来纠正趋势和噪声.
- 通过忽视趋势 (上行) 和噪音 (下行) 引入的分析偏差.
主要成果:
- 显而易见的WSDI增加是温度上升的产物.
- 海洋表现出比陆地更大的持久性成分和较小的噪声成分.
- 随着时间的推移,陆地和海洋的温度持久性一直保持不变.
结论:
- 在整个观察期内,表面温度持久性一直稳定.
- 观察到的温度持久度指标的变化主要是由于方法上的工件,而不是气候变化本身.
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