在极端气候条件下对海洋资源管理的生态预测
Stephanie Brodie1,2,3, Mercedes Pozo Buil4,5, Heather Welch4,5
1Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Monterey, CA, USA. steph.brodie@csiro.au.
Nature communications
|December 5, 2023
概括
生态预测现在可以使用现有的海洋管理工具预测生态系统状况,提前12个月. 这些预测有助于预测极端气候期间的人类与野生动物的相互作用,改善海洋资源管理.
科学领域:
- 海洋生态海洋生态学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 生态预测 生态预测
背景情况:
- 社会挑战需要在新的环境条件下进行生态预测.
- 目前生态预测的应用是有限的,尽管它们在极端气候条件下具有积极决策的潜力.
研究的目的:
- 证明现有的海洋管理工具的适应性,用于生态预测.
- 评估生态预测的技巧,以预测人类与野生动物的相互作用.
- 评估生态预测区域缩小规模的必要性.
主要方法:
- 利用现有的用于预测的配置的海洋管理工具.
- 采用海洋温度异常作为一个关键预测因素.
- 将全球预测的技巧与区域缩小预测进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 能够提前12个月完成熟练的生态预测.
- 证明了预测能够预警与极端气候有关的人类与野生动物相互作用的能力.
- 发现全球预测可以比缩小规模的版本更熟练,用更少的合奏成员.
结论:
- 现有的海洋管理工具可以有效地用于生态预测.
- 生态预测为缓解由气候变化驱动的人类与野生动物冲突提供了宝贵的见解.
- 区域降级并不总是必要的,全球预测可能足够,扩大全球预测可访问性.
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