人口年龄和家庭结构决定了新出现的传染病的传播动态:一种纵向微显模拟方法
Signe Møgelmose1,2, Laurens Vijnck1, Frank Neven1
1Data Science Institute, Interuniversity Institute of Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium.
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
|December 6, 2023
概括
人口结构,包括年龄和家庭组成,显著影响传染病的传播. 了解这些动态对于预测和控制不断变化的人口中的流行病至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 传染病的传播受宿主群体结构和相互作用模式的影响.
- 了解人口动态如何影响个人和人口层面的疾病传播至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 模拟动态,年龄和家庭结构的人口,以了解疾病传播.
- 模拟传染病在不同的流行病学参数和人口变化下传播.
主要方法:
- 利用来自比利时人口普查和人口登记册的纵向微数据.
- 采用双层混合模型模拟家庭和社区内的疾病传播.
- 感染性和易受特定疾病的不同年龄特征,如流感和SARS-CoV-2.
主要成果:
- 年龄和家庭结构强烈影响新兴传染病的传播.
- 成年人的疾病传播在很大程度上取决于家庭的组成,而不仅仅是规模.
- 人口老龄化中的人口变化改变了不同群体之间的传播动态.
结论:
- 人口结构是传染病异质性的关键决定因素.
- 家庭的组成在疾病传播中起着至关重要的作用,特别是在成年人中.
- 人口变化需要适应性策略来管理传染病的动态.
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