探索2022年加拿大的mopox疫情的动态
Rachael M Milwid1, Michael Li2,3, Aamir Fazil2
1Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, St-Hyacinthe, Canada.
Journal of medical virology
|December 6, 2023
概括
数学模型模拟了2022年加拿大的mopox疫情,主要影响同性恋,双性恋和其他与男性发生性关系的男性 (gbMSM). 没有优先级的疫苗接种可能会使疫情恶化,而恢复疫情需要持续进口.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 2022年mopox疫情不成比例地影响了同性恋,双性恋和其他与男性发生性关系的男性 (gbMSM).
- 有效的公共卫生战略需要准确的情境意识和预测建模.
- 了解传播动态对于控制疫情至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在加拿大2022年mopox疫情爆发期间,开发和应用用于情境意识和决策的数学模型.
- 分析流行病驱动因素,传播模式以及国家,省和市级干预措施的影响.
- 为当前和未来mopox疫情的政策和应对策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个国家/省级流行病分析的分区模型.
- 开发了一种基于代理物的模型 (ABM) 来进行市级疫苗接种影响评估.
- 使用2022-2023年mopox病例和疫苗接种数据进行参数化和校准模型.
主要成果:
- 分区模型准确地反映了观察到的流行病轨迹,在2022年7月达到峰值,并在2022年12月降低.
- 在非gbMSM人群中持续传播并未得到该模型的研究结果的支持.
- 该ABM表示,非优先级的疫苗接种可能会使疫情的规模增加47%,并且需要持续进口 (每10,000例≥5例) 来恢复疫情.
结论:
- 数学建模为了解和管理mopox疫情提供了有价值的工具.
- 针对性的疫苗接种策略对于最小化疫情规模和影响至关重要.
- 通过建模进行持续的监测和快速响应是防止未来复发的关键.
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