作为对人类活动和气候变化的反应,红河流域的长期水位动态
Nguyen Hao Quang1, Tran Quoc Viet2, Ha Nam Thang3
1Laboratory of Environmental Sciences and Climate Change, Institute for Computational Science and Artificial Intelligence, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam; Faculty of Environment, School of Technology, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam.
The Science of the total environment
|December 6, 2023
概括
自2008年以来,红河流域的水位大幅下降,主要是由于大运营和砂矿开采等人类活动,而不是气候变化. 排放是影响这些水位变化的主要因素.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 河流管理 河流管理
背景情况:
- 河流水位受到自然和人为因素的影响,因此长期趋势分析对于有效管理至关重要.
- 红河流域面临着气候变化和人类活动带来的压力,需要了解水位动态.
研究的目的:
- 分析红河流域的长期水位变化.
- 确定这些变化的主要驱动因素,区分气候变化和人为影响.
- 为改善河流管理战略提供见解.
主要方法:
- 从1950年代到2021年,对7个测量站的每日观测数据 (水位,排放) 的分析.
- 曼-肯德尔 (Mann-Kendall, MK) 测试,评分曲线和实证直角函数 (Empirical Orthogonal Function, EOF) 的应用,用于时空变化分析.
- 相关性分析以确定排放,降雨和空气温度对水位的影响.
主要成果:
- 从2008年底开始,主要支流的下游和它们的交汇处观察到水位的显著下降.
- 水位与排放有很强的相关性,这表明排放是主要影响因素.
- 人类活动,特别是水运营和砂矿开采,被认为是导致水位变化的主要原因,气候因素的影响较小.
- 上游大的动态,就像Hoa Binh大的动态一样,导致水位上升,由于通道沉积和水库储存,导致类似的排放.
结论:
- 红河流域的水位主要由排放和人为活动控制,而不是气候变化.
- 堤监管和砂矿开采显著影响下游水位,突出了可持续管理实践的必要性.
- 了解这些人为引发的趋势对于红河流域有效的河流管理至关重要.
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