从2000年到2020年,美国大陆地区从野火排放中归因于黑碳和PM2·5的长期死亡负担趋势:一项深度学习建模研究
Jing Wei1, Jun Wang2, Zhanqing Li3
1Department of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, Iowa Technology Institute, Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.
The Lancet. Planetary health
|December 6, 2023
概括
美国西部野火排放量的增加逆转了空气质量的改善,导致更多的过早死亡. 有效的野火管理对于未来的公共卫生和更清洁的空气至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 大气化学 大气化学
背景情况:
- 过去十年来,美国大陆的空气质量改善受到火灾排放量增加的威胁.
- 本研究调查了这些排放对颗粒物 (PM2.5) 和黑碳 (BC) 度以及相关死亡率的影响.
研究的目的:
- 估计2000年至2020年美国PM2.5和黑碳度的趋势.
- 量化这些污染物的可归因死亡负担.
- 评估野火对空气质量和公共健康的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用深度学习,利用卫星,模型和表面观测数据,每天获得1公里分辨率的PM2.5和黑碳度.
- 估计的PM2.5-和黑碳可归因的死亡率使用来自国家队列和元分析研究的度-反应函数.
- 分析了时空趋势和野火对空气质量和死亡率的影响.
主要成果:
- 从2000年到2020年,PM2.5和黑碳度总体下降,每年减少了约4200人过早死亡.
- 自2010年以来,美国西部的趋势发生了逆转,PM2.5 (55%),黑碳 (86%) 和过早死亡 (670) 显著增加,主要是由于野火造成的.
- 黑碳与PM2.5的比率在全国范围内增加,这表明相对毒性正在上升,百分之百的人口密地区至少一次超过每日空气质量指南.
结论:
- 美国西部野火加剧对空气质量和公共卫生产生了负面影响,增加了死亡率.
- 通过预防,管理和恢复来减少野火风险,对于改善空气质量和公共卫生至关重要.
- 应对气候变化和野火管理的政策对于长期的空气质量和健康益处至关重要.
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