在高排放情景下,美国大陆地区的干旱和极端事件增加
Sagar Gautam1,2, Umakant Mishra3,4, Corinne D Scown4,5,6,7
1Bioscience Division, Sandia National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, 94550, USA. sgautam@sandia.gov.
Scientific reports
|December 6, 2023
概括
未来的极端气候将增加整个美国大陆的干旱频率和温暖时期 (CONUS). 这些气候预测突出了脆弱地区,影响生态系统和排放战略.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 极端气候对人类福祉,生态系统和气候缓解战略构成重大风险.
- 准确的缩小规模的气候数据对于理解区域影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了缩小美国气象站的气候数据.
- 分析美国大陆气象干旱和极端温度的未来趋势 (CONUS).
主要方法:
- 利用来自CONUS的4161个气象站的数据.
- 在高排放场景SSP5 8.5 (CMIP6) 下,从三个地球系统模型 (ESM) 中缩小了未来降水预测.
- 将历史观测与气候模型预测进行比较,以确定偏差.
主要成果:
- 与观察到的数据相比,预计每年降水天数的增加 (例如,181-205天与91天相比).
- 分析显示,与历史时期 (1989-2018) 相比,未来预测 (2023-2052) 中的干旱月份和更长的温暖时期的增加.
- 预计东部温带森林和大平原将经历更高的干旱频率.
结论:
- 未来的气候预测显示,CONUS地区干旱发生率和温暖周期持续时间显著增加.
- 这些发现凸显了脆弱地区,特别是农业地区需要适应性战略的需要.
- 高分辨率的气候预测为决策者提供了关键信息,以应对气候变化影响.
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