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多重回归模型的准确性,用于预测反复发生的横侧骨脱位的个体风险
Jiang Yu1, Yijin Li2, Kaibo Zhang1
1Department of Orthopedic Surgery/Orthopedic Research Institute, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
BMC musculoskeletal disorders
|December 6, 2023
概括
骨不稳定性严重性评分 (PIS) 准确地预测了反复发生的侧面骨脱位,与RIP和PIP评分不同. PIS可以帮助临床医生为有风险的患者做出明智的治疗决定.
科学领域:
- 整形外科 整形外科 整形外科
- 运动医学 运动医学
- 生物力学 生物力学
背景情况:
- 反复出现的侧侧位 (RLPD) 严重影响患者的生活质量,导致疼痛,软骨损伤和关节炎.
- 现有的RLPD预测评分系统缺乏确定的相对准确性.
研究的目的:
- 评估单个RLPD风险的多重回归模型的预测准确度.
- 比较皮带不稳定性概率计算器 (PIP),皮带得分的反复不稳定性 (RIP) 和皮带不稳定性严重性得分 (PIS) 的性能.
主要方法:
- 一项回顾性比较研究,涉及171名患有骨脱病史的患者和171名健康对照.
- 评估了PIP,RIP和PIS评分规则,评估了观察者之间的和观察者内部的可靠性.
- 利用接收器运行特征 (ROC) 曲线来分析三个模型的预测能力.
主要成果:
- PIS的准确性很高,在143个病例中正确预测了RLPD,并在对照中正确识别了160个非位移病例 (正预测值92.9%,负预测值85.1%).
- 检测期和预测期显示较低的预测值 (检测期:64%阳性,60.9%阴性;预测期:68%阳性,36.2%阴性).
- 曲线下的面积 (AUC) 得分有利于PIS (0.866) 超过RIP (0.673) 和PIP (0.678).
结论:
- 检查期内和PIP分数对于预测横侧带脱位是不可靠的.
- PIS在预测反复发生的侧面带脱位方面表现出显著的准确性.
- PIS可以成为临床医生指导RLPD治疗策略的宝贵工具.
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