慢性阻塞性肺病的全球负担到2050年
Elroy Boers1, Meredith Barrett2, Jason G Su3
1ResMed Science Center, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.
JAMA network open
|December 7, 2023
概括
到2050年,慢性阻塞性肺病 (COPD) 将影响近6亿人. 预测显示,女性和低收入地区的病例显著增加,突显了全球干预的需要.
科学领域:
- 呼吸系统医学 呼吸系统医学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 全球健康 全球健康
背景情况:
- 慢性阻塞性肺病 (COPD) 是一个重大的全球健康和经济挑战.
- 目前有可用的COPD流行数据,但长期预测对于有效的资源规划和干预开发至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测到2050年的全球COPD负担.
- 将关键的COPD风险因素纳入这些预测.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自2019年分析的COPD流行数据.
- 使用随机效应元分析模型估计的2010-2018年流行率.
- 采用包括吸烟,空气污染和发展指数在内的通用添加模型,按年龄,性别和地区分层,以预测未来的患病率.
主要成果:
- 从2020年到2050年,全球COPD病例 (年龄≥25岁) 预计将增加23%,接近6亿.
- 与男性 (9.4%的增长) 相比,女性 (47.1%的增长) 预计会出现不成比例的增长.
- 预计到2050年,低收入和中等收入地区的病例数量将比高收入地区增加两倍多.
结论:
- 截至2050年,COPD将继续影响全球数亿人.
- 预计女性和低收入和中等收入地区的负担将不成比例地增加.
- 进一步的研究,预防策略和宣传对于充分的准备和资源分配至关重要.
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