在夏威夷夏威夷岛上改善预测野火易感性,使用可解释的混合机器学习模型
Trang Thi Kieu Tran1, Saeid Janizadeh1, Sayed M Bateni1
1Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering and Water Resources Research Center, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, 96822, USA.
这项研究比较了四种机器学习模型,用于在夏威夷岛上绘制野火易感性地图. 黑寡妇优化-极端梯度提升 (BWO-XGBoost) 模型显示出最好的预测性能,有助于野火管理.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 地理空间分析是什么
- 计算智能是一种计算智能.
背景情况:
- 野火对夏威夷岛的生态系统和社区构成重大威胁.
- 准确的野火易感性测绘对于有效的土地和火灾管理至关重要.
- 机器学习提供了先进的工具来预测容易发生野火的地区.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较分析四个机器学习模型在夏威夷岛上对野火易感性测绘的性能.
- 确定导致野火发生的最有影响力的因素.
- 为支持地方当局生成可靠的野火易感性地图.
主要方法:
- 他们使用了四种机器学习模型:极端梯度增强 (XGBoost) 和其与元启发算法 (鱼优化 - WOA,黑寡妇优化 - BWO,蝶优化 - BOA) 的组合.
- 使用了1408个点 (2004-2022) 的野火清单和14个条件因素 (地形,气象,植被,人为)
- 模型的性能使用诸如接收器运行特征曲线 (AUC) 下的面积,灵敏度,特异性和基于精度的措施等指标进行评估. 沙普利添加剂扩张 (SHAP) 用于变量重要性分析.
主要成果:
- 这四种模型都在绘制野火易感度时表现出强大的预测性能.
- BWO-XGBoost模型实现了最高的预测准确性 (AUC = 0.9269),紧随其后的是WOA-XGBoost (AUC = 0.9253),BOA-XGBoost (AUC = 0.9232) 和XGBoost (AUC = 0.9164),这些都是最准确的.
- SHAP分析发现,距离道路的距离,年气温和海拔是影响野火发生的最重要因素.
结论:
- 与XGBoost集成的元启发算法增强了野火易感性建模.
- BWO-XGBoost为夏威夷的野火风险评估提供了一个强大而准确的方法.
- 生成的易感性地图是积极的野火管理和灭火策略的宝贵工具.
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