恶性黑色素瘤早期发病率和死亡率的关联 - - 一项基于人口的生态研究
Laura Schumann1, Nora Eisemann1, Jobst Augustin2
1Institute of Social Medicine and Epidemiology, University of Luebeck, Luebeck, Germany.
概括
德国的皮肤癌查计划于2008年推出,对减少黑色素瘤死亡率的影响很小. 早期黑色素瘤发病率增加,但死亡率保持不变,这表明该计划的有效性有限.
科学领域:
- 皮肤病学 皮肤病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 2008年,德国在全国范围内实施了皮肤癌查.
- 该计划旨在降低皮肤癌死亡率和发病率.
- 这个查计划的整体有效性仍然不确定.
研究的目的:
- 调查早期黑色素瘤发病率和随后的黑色素瘤死亡率之间的关系.
- 使用早期黑色素瘤发病率作为查参与率和早期检测率的代理.
主要方法:
- 利用来自德国244个县的黑色素瘤发病率数据 (2005-2016) 和死亡率数据 (2005-2018).
- 使用相关性分析和线性回归来检查发病率与死亡率的关系.
主要成果:
- 早期黑色素瘤发病率 (in situ和T1) 在查引入后升了69%.
- 没有观察到黑色素瘤死亡率的显著时间趋势.
- 相关性分析显示,发病率和死亡率之间没有显著的关联 (r在 -0.14 和 0.10 之间).
- 线性回归表明,随着早期发病率变化增加,死亡率略有,但不显著下降.
结论:
- 在德国,皮肤癌查对黑色素瘤死亡率的影响似乎很小,在统计学上是微不足道的.
- 目前缺乏证据来证明该计划在降低死亡率方面的有效性.
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