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由于气候变化,美国人口对极端降水风险的暴露增加了
Jungho Kim1, Jeremy Porter2, Edward J Kearns2
1First Street Foundation, Brooklyn, NY, USA. Jungho@firststreet.org.
Scientific reports
|December 8, 2023
概括
极端降水事件的增加速度比预期的要快,在美国连续一半的地区超过了NOAA Atlas 14标准. 这需要更新国家标准,以管理更频繁,更严重的风暴带来的风险,并保护社区.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学 水文学
- 极端天气事件 极端天气事件
背景情况:
- 极端降水事件的规模和频率正在增加,超过了之前的预测.
- 当前的国家降水标准,如NOAA Atlas 14,无法解释这些快速变化.
- 由于基础设施设计和规划不足,这种差异会造成洪水对生命和财产的风险.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较最近的极端降水趋势与NOAA阿特拉斯14标准.
- 量化受低估极端降水风险影响的人口数量,在连续的美国.
- 为了评估当前的基础设施设计标准在不断变化的降雨模式面前的充分性.
主要方法:
- 对21世纪初极端降水数据的分析.
- 观测到的降水趋势与NOAA阿特拉斯14数据的比较,用于连续的美国.
- 基于低估极端降水风险的人口影响评估.
主要成果:
- 极端降水超过了NOAA阿特拉斯14标准,在连续美国50%的地区.
- 超过75%的美国人口可能会经历这种极端降水的"新常态".
- 人口的三分之一可能会在他们的一生中面临100年一次的风暴事件,多达三次.
结论:
- 目前的降水标准不足以保护公共安全和财产免受严重的气候驱动洪水的影响.
- 需要紧急重新评估液压和适应结构的运行规则.
- 强烈建议制定和实施气候调整的国家降水标准,以适应"新常态".
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