围绕生育的经济激励:阿拉斯加永久基金股息证据
Nishant Yonzan1, Laxman Timilsina2, Inas Rashad Kelly3
1World Bank, United States of America.
Economics and human biology
|December 9, 2023
概括
阿拉斯加永久基金红利激励了生育率的增加,特别是在20岁以上的女性中. 这种在1982-1988年间观察到的出生计划增加表明,红利对生殖选择的影响很大.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
背景情况:
- 阿拉斯加永久基金红利 (PFD) 是一个独特的普遍基本收入政策.
- 了解PFD的社会经济影响,包括对生育能力的影响,对于政策评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 估计PFD对阿拉斯加生育率的因果关系.
- 为了比较阿拉斯加的生育趋势与合成的反事实.
主要方法:
- 利用合成控制方法来构建阿拉斯加的反事实.
- 分析了1982年至1988年15至44岁女性的生育数据.
主要成果:
- 阿拉斯加的生育率从1982年到1988年每年每1000名妇女增加11.3个出生 (13.1%超过反事实) .
- 这一增长集中在20至44岁的女性中,在这个年龄段的所有年龄组中都有显著的增长.
- 没有观察到青少年生育率或堕胎率的显著变化.
结论:
- PFD是阿拉斯加生育率上升的一个重要激励因素.
- 观察到的生育率的增加似乎是有计划的,由人口统计学模式和稳定的堕胎率表明.
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