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重新分类历史灾害:从单一到多重危险
Ryan Lee1, Christopher J White1, Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan1
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK.
The Science of the total environment
|December 9, 2023
概括
涉及多种自然灾害的多重危险事件,在全球范围内造成重大经济损失. 虽然单一的灾难导致更多的死亡,但了解这些复杂的事件对于更好的风险评估和减缓策略至关重要.
科学领域:
- 地球和环境科学 地球和环境科学
- 减少灾害风险 减少灾害风险
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 由同时发生或连续发生的自然灾害定义的多重危险事件对生命和财产构成复杂的威胁.
- 鉴定这些事件是困难的,因为复杂的危险相互作用和有限的观测数据.
- 相互影响的危险的累积和级联效应放大了它们的整体影响.
研究的目的:
- 利用EM-DAT数据库开发和应用一种方法来识别1900-2023年间的多重危险事件.
- 分析多重危险事件的频率,影响和报告趋势.
- 探索危险对之间的相互作用,并对多危险事件类型进行分类.
主要方法:
- 使用EM-DAT全球灾害数据库,特别是"相关危险"信息.
- 在123年的时间里 (1900-2023年) 分析了16535起被记录的灾难.
- 将危险相互作用分为预先条件/触发,多变量,时间复合和空间复合的类别.
主要成果:
- 大约19%的记录灾难被归类为多重危险事件.
- 多重危险事件占全球经济损失的59%,尽管造成的死亡人数比单一危险事件少.
- 洪水,风暴和地震是最常见的初级危险,滑坡经常作为次要危险.
结论:
- 多重危险事件虽然比单一危险事件少,但导致经济损失的比例不成比例.
- 亚洲和北美显示多重危险事件的流行率更高,而欧洲则经历了更多的时间重叠.
- 将多种危险视角纳入风险评估和政策中,对于有效的灾害管理至关重要.
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