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在无症状妇女中预测子宫内膜癌风险 (精确):模型开发和外部验证
Sarah J Kitson1, Emma J Crosbie1,2, D Gareth Evans3
1Division of Cancer Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
BJOG : an international journal of obstetrics and gynaecology
|December 11, 2023
概括
一个新的模型准确地预测了45-60岁的女性10年内宫内膜癌风险. 该工具使用易于测量的因素来识别妇女用于预防试验和针对性护理在英国的初级实践.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 预测子宫内膜癌风险对于早期检测和预防策略至关重要.
- 现有的模型可能缺乏对特定人群的外部验证,例如英国的初级保健.
研究的目的:
- 为英国初级保健开发和外部验证子宫内膜癌风险预测模型.
- 创建一个工具,准确量化无症状妇女10年的子宫内膜癌风险.
主要方法:
- 一项使用英国生物银行进行模型开发的队列研究.
- 外部验证是通过链接的英国初级和二级保健数据集,死亡记录和癌症登记册进行的.
- 灵活的参数生存模型和逐步倒向选择被用于模型开发.
主要成果:
- 最终的模型包括年龄,BMI,腰围,生殖史,激素使用,糖尿病,吸烟和家族史.
- 外部验证显示了良好的校准 (校准斜率1.14,E/O1.03) 和中等/良好的区分 (C统计值0.70).
- 该模型显示,与以前开发的模型相比,净收益有所改善.
结论:
- 在无症状妇女中预测子宫内膜癌风险 (PRECISION) 模型准确评估了10年的子宫内膜癌风险.
- 这种模型可以帮助识别符合条件的候选人进行子宫内膜癌预防试验.
- PRECISION模型支持在英国的一般做法中针对性地分配资源.
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