探讨改变埃塞俄比亚传统乳制品系统的政策选择:一种系统动态方法
Milkessa Temesgen1, Jema Haji2, Asfaw Negassa3
1Department of Agricultural Economics, Ambo University, Ethiopia.
Heliyon
|December 11, 2023
概括
改善埃塞俄比亚的奶牛养殖需要专注于料开发,而不仅仅是牲畜的大小. 改进的料策略显著提高了牛奶产量和乳制品家庭的利,尽管蛋白质需求仍然是一个挑战.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 系统动力学建模系统动力学建模
- 畜牧生产系统 畜牧生产系统
背景情况:
- 埃塞俄比亚拥有大量的牛群和有利的气候,但在乳制品生产和消费方面落后.
- 西什瓦地区的传统乳制品系统面临着生产力和利能力方面的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 为西什瓦乳制品价值链开发一个系统动态 (SD) 模型.
- 评估各种干预措施对牛奶生产和家庭利的前期影响.
主要方法:
- 综合系统动态 (SD) 建模,采用参与式建模方法.
- 评估的干预措施:提高农作物残留物的尿素处理,增加改善料生产,增加奶牛群体规模.
主要成果:
- 料开发战略可以使牛奶产量增加70%,家庭利增加735%.
- 增加群体规模的政策被发现是无利可图的.
- 即使在干旱期间,改善的料政策也导致了牛奶产量和利的提高,尽管牛群规模减少了.
结论:
- 料开发是一个比增加群体规模更有效的策略,以改善西什瓦乳制品价值链.
- 进一步的研究应侧重于提高料资源供应和质量,并探索改进的品种.
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