适应不能跟上预计的温度上升的步伐
Shuai Chen1,2, Jie-Sheng Tan-Soo3, Hai-Jian Ye2
1Academy of Social Governance, Zhejiang University, Zhejiang, China.
iScience
|December 11, 2023
概括
人类适应气候变化,但适应气候落后于温度上升. 即使在乐观的情景中,积极削减温室气体排放仍然至关重要,以减轻对福祉的不利影响.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 人类的福祉 人类的福祉
背景情况:
- 越来越多的论点表明,由于人类适应气候变化的能力,减排的需求减少了.
- 评估这一主张需要经验方法来追踪个体的温度暴露历史.
研究的目的:
- 实证地研究人类适应温度变化的程度.
- 量化个性化温度暴露对幸福感的影响.
- 在未来的气候情景下评估温室气体减排的必要性.
主要方法:
- 使用了对中国具有代表性的纵向数据集.
- 基于出生细节和迁移历史,为个人构建了终身温度暴露档案.
- 分析了温度异常与个人幸福感之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 个体化温度异常的1°C增加与幸福感的2%下降相关 (1S.D. ) 的情况.
- 负面影响主要是由"比预期更热"的天气驱动的.
- 适应效应减少了未来的温度影响,但适应落后于预计的增加.
结论:
- 严格的温室气体减排是必不可少的,即使在净零场景下.
- 个人适应有局限性,未来的气候变化需要缓解努力.
- 政策干预应考虑温度变化对人类福祉的影响差异.
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