电池电动汽车的指数式采用
Felix Jung1, Malte Schröder1, Marc Timme1,2
1Chair of Network Dynamics, Center for Advancing Electronics Dresden (cfaed) and Institute of Theoretical Physics, TUD Dresden University of Technology, Dresden, Germany.
电池电动汽车 (BEV) 采用率呈指数级增长,大规模采用预计比预期的要早得多. 由于快速翻倍时间,欧洲可能会在2031年看到大多数电动乘用车.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 运输技术 运输技术 运输技术
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
背景情况:
- 道路运输是温室气体排放的主要来源.
- 广泛采用电池电动汽车 (BEV) 的时间表正在讨论中.
- 了解BEV采用率对于减排战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在全球范围内分析乘用车的BEV采用趋势.
- 预测大量采用电动汽车的时间表.
- 评估快速采用BEV的影响.
主要方法:
- 分析了17个国家,欧洲和世界的历史性BEV采用数据.
- 开发一种基于建模的方法来预测未来的采用率.
- 检查电动车队的增长率和翻倍时间.
主要成果:
- 在BEV采用中观察到一致的指数式增长趋势.
- 建模表明,整个系统的采用将比以前估计的要快得多.
- 预计在2031年左右,欧洲将大规模采用电动乘用车.
- 电动汽车车队的增长率表明,各地区的翻倍时间约为15个月.
结论:
- 电动汽车的采用正在呈指数级加速,挑战了传统的经济预测.
- 快速采用需要短期的经济和基础设施调整.
- 这些发现突出了交通部门快速脱碳的潜力.
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