目标通胀:一个时间频率因果调查
Tanweer Ul Islam1, Dajeeha Ahmed1
1Department of Economics, National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan.
PloS one
|December 11, 2023
概括
发展中国家的央行可能不经意地通过提高利率来加剧通货膨胀,从而创造一个矛盾的循环. 解决结构性和供给方面的问题对于打破这种模式和控制价格上至关重要.
科学领域:
- 宏观经济学 宏观经济学
- 货币政策分析 货币政策分析
- 发展中国家经济体的发展.
背景情况:
- 讨论了发展中国家利率政策的有效性,结构性和供给侧因素发挥了关键作用.
- 现有的文献并未确定通货膨胀和利率之间的因果关系.
- 发展中国家的中央银行广泛采用利率政策,促使对其动机进行调查.
研究的目的:
- 研究发展中国家的各种时间和频率尺度的利率和通货膨胀之间的因果关系.
- 扩大对货币政策因果关系的理解,超越传统的短期和长期分析.
- 揭示在发展中国家面对通货膨胀时推动央行政策的动态.
主要方法:
- 波形变换应用于22个发展中国家 (1992-2022) 的每月利率和通胀数据.
- 在频率尺度的频谱中进行分析,以探索超越传统时间尺度的因果关系.
- 检查关键宏观经济变量之间的复杂因果相互作用.
主要成果:
- 在发展中国家的政策利率和通货膨胀之间发现了积极的因果关系.
- 央行利率上升与随后的价格水平升有关.
- 一个矛盾的循环出现,中央银行为了应对通货膨胀而提高利率,可能会加剧通货膨胀.
结论:
- 为了制通货膨胀,提高利率的传统货币政策在发展中国家可能会产生反作用.
- 结构性和供给侧因素对于打破观察到的正因循环至关重要.
- 中央银行需要重新评估战略,并专注于潜在的经济决定因素,以有效管理通货膨胀.
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