预测发展中国家的水泥生产未来的碳排放.
Danyang Cheng1, David M Reiner2, Fan Yang3
1Department of Earth System Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China.
Nature communications
|December 11, 2023
概括
发展中国家的水泥生产对全球二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放产生重大影响. 实施低碳战略可以大幅减少未来的排放,帮助实现气候目标.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 工业生态学 工业生态学
背景情况:
- 水泥行业是全球二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放的主要贡献者,对发展中国家的基础设施增长至关重要.
- 发展中国家的水泥排放缺乏准确的会计和预测,阻碍了有效的气候政策.
- 显而易见的是,从水泥生产中产生主要的二氧化碳排放贡献者的区域转移.
研究的目的:
- 在全球范围内使用自下而上的方法量化水泥生产排放量.
- 根据各种情景,在发展中国家 (不包括中国) 预测未来 (2020-2050) 的水泥排放量.
- 为这些地区的水泥行业探索有效的低碳减排选择.
主要方法:
- 全球水泥生产排放量的自下而上的量化.
- 住房,基础设施发展和减排选择的场景分析.
- 对发展中国家 (不包括中国) 从2020年到2050年的水泥二氧化碳排放量预测.
主要成果:
- 发展中国家 (不包括中国) 的水泥排放量预计到2050年将达到1.4-3.8亿,高于2018年的每年0.7亿.
- 最佳的低碳措施可以在2050年之前将年度排放量减少约65%,累计排放量减少48%.
- 低碳水泥行业的有效技术途径因国家特定因素和基础设施发展而异.
结论:
- 了解发展中国家未来的水泥排放模式对于实现全球气候目标至关重要.
- 为了实现气候目标,需要在水泥行业进行量身定制的政策干预.
- 该研究提供了为气候政策提供信息和促进水泥行业可持续发展的重要数据.
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