气候变化,城市基础设施和流动性之间的相互作用正在推动越南登革热的出现
Rory Gibb1,2,3,4, Felipe J Colón-González5,6,7,8, Phan Trong Lan9
1Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. rory.gibb.14@ucl.ac.uk.
Nature communications
|December 11, 2023
概括
登革热的发病率是由城市基础设施和人类流动驱动的,温度变暖扩大了越南各地的传播风险. 登革热风险在过渡区最高,而不仅仅是城市中心.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 登革热是一个日益严重的全球健康问题.
- 了解导致登革热出现的当地因素至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查越南登革热发病率和出现的驱动因素.
- 分析气候和社会环境因素对登革热动态的影响.
主要方法:
- 分析了越南23年 (1998-2020年) 的地区级登革热病例数据.
- 利用了长期再分析的温度数据和社会环境指标.
主要成果:
- 城市基础设施 (卫生,供水) 和人类流动性影响着空间登革热模式.
- 自1950年以来气温的升温扩大了登革热传播风险,特别是在热点地区.
- 水文气象效应是复杂的;风险随着降水过多或干旱而增加,但供水提供了一些缓解.
结论:
- 登革热发病率在过渡性景观中达到顶峰,挑战了"城市疾病"假设.
- 气候变化和人类流动性相互作用,推动越南登革热的扩散.
- 调查结果强调了需要特定环境的登革热控制策略.
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