在52个非洲国家实施COVID-19疫苗接种:对未来的流行病准备的轨迹和影响
Oghenebrume Wariri1,2,3, Muhammed Olanrewaju Afolabi4,5, Christinah Mukandavire3
1Vaccines and Immunity Theme, MRC Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia Muhammed.Afolabi@lshtm.ac.uk owariri@mrc.gm.
BMJ global health
|December 12, 2023
概括
只有9个非洲国家实现了COVID-19疫苗接种目标. 许多国家需要将疫苗接种速度提高一倍,以达到70%的目标,这凸显了适应性全球卫生战略的必要性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 疫苗学 疫苗学 疫苗学
背景情况:
- 世界卫生组织的目标是到2022年中期全球70%的COVID-19疫苗接种,以结束大流行.
- 评估非洲国家的疫苗接种轨迹对于了解进展和未来的准备工作至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预计COVID-19疫苗接种覆盖范围在52个非洲国家.
- 将预计覆盖率与2022年12月之前的观察数据进行比较.
- 估计达到70%目标所需的疫苗接种速度.
主要方法:
- 利用公开可用的每日COVID-19疫苗接种数据,用于部署后的前9个月.
- 采用了一个确定性的分隔式易受-暴露-感染-恢复 (SEIR) 类型模型.
- 应用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛 (MCMC) 在贝叶斯框架内,以使模型适应特定国家的病例数据和疫苗接种覆盖率.
主要成果:
- 在52个国家中,只有9个国家在2022年12月之前实现70%的COVID-19疫苗接种覆盖率.
- 50%的国家在预计覆盖率的±10个百分点内实现了观察到的覆盖率.
- 83%的国家需要至少翻一番疫苗接种率才能达到70%的目标.
结论:
- 研究结果为规划未来全球卫生紧急情况战略提供了洞察力.
- 超过疫苗接种预期的国家为其他人提供了宝贵的教训.
- 适应性战略对于在流行病中实现全球卫生目标至关重要.
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