预计英格兰老年人非正式照顾的成本
Bo Hu1, Javiera Cartagena-Farias2, Nicola Brimblecombe2
1Care Policy and Evaluation Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science, Clement's Inn, London, WC2A 2AE, UK. b.hu@lse.ac.uk.
概括
2019年,英格兰老年人非正式护理的经济成本为5420亿英,预计到2039年将增加87%. 投资于健康老龄化和护理人员支持对于管理这些不断上升的成本至关重要.
科学领域:
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 老年学是指老年学的学科.
- 公共政策 公共政策
背景情况:
- 医疗经济学中的社会观点越来越多地纳入非正式护理成本.
- 预测非正式护理的经济成本对于了解长期政策影响至关重要.
- 本研究的重点是预测英格兰老年人的非正式护理费用.
研究的目的:
- 预测英格兰老年人非正式照顾的未来经济成本.
- 为决策者和研究人员提供关于人口老龄化的长期财务影响的信息.
- 分析这些预测对人口和流行病学趋势的敏感性.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自英国老龄化纵向研究 (ELSA) 和英国健康调查的数据.
- 采用联合马尔科夫和宏模拟建模方法进行预测.
- 纳入贝叶斯方法来解决参数不确定性,并探索各种未来趋势假设.
主要成果:
- 据估计,在2019年,非正式护理费用达到542亿英,是正式长期护理费用的三倍.
- 预计到2039年,非正式护理费用将增加87%.
- 突出了预测对预期寿命,生育率和残疾进展的敏感性.
结论:
- 促进健康老龄化和独立性的预防策略是缓解非正式护理成本的关键.
- 政府对非正式护理人员和护理接收者的支持对于护理的充分性和福祉至关重要.
- 解决非正式护理成本可以防止经济溢出影响到其他部门.
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