载体传播病原体的季节性和持久性
Van Hai Khong1, Philippe Carmona1, Sylvain Gandon2
1Laboratoire de Mathématiques Jean Leray, Université de Nantes, France.
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
|December 12, 2023
概括
环境的季节性影响载体传播疾病的持续性. 我们的分析表明,载体密度或咬伤率的季节性变化可以相反地影响病原体的传播,这取决于它们在疾病模型中的协同变异.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 媒介性疾病受到环境季节性的重大影响.
- 预测环境波动对病原体基本繁殖率 (R0) 的影响是具有挑战性的.
- 季节性影响病原体生命周期的各个阶段.
研究的目的:
- 分析一种包含周期性环境波动的通用载体传播疾病模型.
- 开发一个扰动分析框架,以大致估计季节性对R0.0的影响.
- 确定季节性增加或减少病原体持久性的条件.
主要方法:
- 为通用载体传播疾病模型开发了一个扰动分析框架.
- 考虑到不同病原体生命周期组件的周期性波动.
- 分析了主要流行病学模型组件之间的共变性.
主要成果:
- 确定了季节性影响病原体持久性的情况 (R0).
- 证明载体密度的季节性和载体咬伤率可以对持久性产生相反的影响.
- 为这些相反的效应提供了基于区间共变性的生物学解释.
结论:
- 季节性对载体传播疾病持续性的影响是复杂的,并取决于特定的生命周期组件.
- 开发的框架提供了关于环境波动如何影响病原体传播的见解.
- 该框架可适应探索季节性对载体传播病原体生命周期的其他方面影响.
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