气候变暖下的各种神经退行性疾病的温度相关死亡负担:全国性的建模研究
Peng Yin1, Ya Gao2, Renjie Chen2
1National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Nature communications
|December 12, 2023
概括
气候变暖增加了神经退行性疾病的死亡率,高温和低温都会带来风险. 未来的预测显示,与高温相关的死亡人数将增加,强调需要采取气候和公共卫生行动.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 神经学 神经学
背景情况:
- 对气候变暖对神经退行性疾病死亡率的影响的理解有限.
- 越来越关注影响慢性病负担的环境因素.
研究的目的:
- 调查非最佳温度与神经退行性疾病死亡之间的关联.
- 在各种气候变化情景下预测未来的神经退行性疾病死亡负担.
主要方法:
- 全国,个人级别,案例交叉研究设计.
- 在2013年至2019年期间收集的数据.
- 分析温度对神经退行性疾病死亡率的影响.
主要成果:
- 低和高的环境温度都与神经退行性疾病的死亡率增加有关.
- 预计与热有关的神经退行性疾病死亡人数将增加,与寒冷有关的死亡人数将减少.
- 预计21世纪中叶之后,净可归因死亡人数将上升,特别是在高排放场景下.
结论:
- 气候变暖通过增加神经退行性疾病的死亡率对公共健康构成重大威胁.
- 迫切需要整合的气候和公共卫生政策来缓解这些风险.
- 缓解策略可以减少由于气候变化而导致神经退行性疾病死亡的预计增加.
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