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在卢旺达,使用小面积估计在部门层面确定儿童发育迟缓的流行率
Innocent Ngaruye1, Joseph Nzabanita2, François Niragire3
1Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Technology, University of Rwanda, Kigali, Rwanda. ingaruye@gmail.com.
儿童发育迟缓仍然是一个全球性问题. 在卢旺达,小面积估计 (SAE) 显示了各行各业缩患病率的显著差异,突出了针对性干预的必要性.
科学领域:
- 儿科和儿童健康 儿科和儿童健康
- 公共卫生和流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 在全球范围内,儿童发育迟缓影响1.481亿人 (2022年为22.3%).
- 卢旺达2019/2020年人口健康调查报告称,5岁以下儿童中33.5%的发育迟缓.
- 对于卢旺达的有针对性的干预措施,部门层面的衰退数据是不够的.
研究的目的:
- 提供可靠的,部门级估计卢旺达5岁以下儿童的衰老率.
- 为优先干预确定高发育迟缓率的地区.
主要方法:
- 使用小面积估计 (SAE) 技术.
- 采用了具有显著共变量的通用线性混合模型.
- 为所有行业生成了以平均平方误差 (MSE) 为基础的基于模型的估计.
主要成果:
- 在416个行业中,只有40个行业实现了国家衰老目标 (<19%).
- 194个部门超过了全国流行率 (33.5%),主要在北部和西部省份.
- 发育迟缓的流行率在基加利市是最低的.
- 家庭规模,居住地,领导的性别以及获得卫生设施/清洁水等因素与衰老有关.
结论:
- 研究结果可以为当地干预措施的政策决策提供信息,这些干预措施适用于高停滞率的行业.
- 结果支持针对性的策略,以解决卢旺达的儿童发展迟缓问题.
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