在一般人群中食道状细胞癌的预测模型的性能:系统性审查和外部验证研究
Hao Jiang1, Ru Chen2,3, Yanyan Li4
1School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
The American journal of gastroenterology
|December 13, 2023
概括
食道状细胞癌 (ESCC) 的预测模型显示了中度的外部验证性能. 这些模型可能有助于基于人群的内镜查ESCC,但需要进一步优化.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 食道状细胞癌 (ESCC) 预测模型需要在目标人群中进行验证,以进行有效的,具有成本效益的内镜查.
- 在这些模型被广泛应用之前,系统审查和外部验证至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 系统地审查和外部验证ESCC和严重发育不良及以上 (SDA) 的预测模型.
- 为了比较在中国的大型多中心前队列中识别的模型的性能.
主要方法:
- 系统审查确定了SDA或ESCC的15个预测模型.
- 在89,753名参与者 (年龄在40-69岁之间) 的前队列中,对11个模型 (4个SDA,7个ESCC) 的外部验证.
- 使用歧视 (C统计) 和校准 (校准图,Hosmer-Lemeshow测试) 评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 十一个模型被外部验证;SDA模型的C-统计从0.67-0.70. ESCC模型的范围从0.51-0.74不等,其中汉等人. (2023) 显示最好的歧视.
- 大多数模型在重新校准后表现出良好的校准,与x=y直线对齐.
结论:
- 几个ESCC预测模型在外部验证中表现适度.
- 这些经过验证的模型在基于人口的ESCC查中显示出潜在的实用性.
- 建议进行进一步的研究,以优化模型,概括,实施和健康经济评估.
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