新结核控制模型对新疆结核病发病率的干预效应
Yan Zhang1, Xinqi Wang2, Nianqiang Liu2
1Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, 830011, People's Republic of China.
Infection and drug resistance
|December 13, 2023
概括
"新疆模式"政策有效降低了肺结核 (PTB) 发病率,特别是在高负担地区. 持续实施对于控制结核病传播至关重要.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病控制和控制传染病
背景情况:
- 肺结核 (PTB) 仍然是新疆的重大公共卫生挑战.
- 了解公共卫生干预措施的影响对于有效的疾病控制至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化评估"新疆模式"政策对PTB发病率的干预影响.
- 为了比较政策的有效性在不同地区的不同结核病负担.
主要方法:
- 对新疆PTB发病率数据的回顾性分析 (2012-2021年).
- 使用Joinpoint,单组中断时间序列 (ITS) 和受控中断时间序列 (CITS) 模型.
- 在高,中,低结核负担地区的政策效应比较.
主要成果:
- 新疆的整体PTB发病率呈现下降趋势 (AAPC=-3.4%).
- 该政策最初增加了发病率 (+13.806/100,000),但导致长期的月度下降 (-0.690/100,000).
- 高负担地区经历了最显著的长期减少 (每月1.460/100,000).
结论:
- "新疆模式"政策与PTB发病率之间存在动态因果关系.
- 该政策的持续实施在控制结核病传播方面是有效的.
- 干预措施的影响因结核病负担而异,对高结核负担地区的影响更大.
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