二次崩的点过程建模
Samarth Motagi1, Sirish Namilae1, Audrey Gbaguidi1
1Department of Aerospace Engineering, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, Florida, United States of America.
PloS one
|December 13, 2023
概括
二次撞车在高速公路上构成重大风险. 这项研究开发了一种模型来区分初级和二级撞车,发现它们占事故的高达15.09%,而正弦形模型最适合交通模式.
科学领域:
- 交通安全分析分析
- 运输事故的统计建模.
背景情况:
- 在主要事件发生后发生的次要事故,对应急人员和受害者构成极端危险.
- 了解碰撞动态对于改善高速公路安全和事故响应至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一个自我激发的时间点过程模型来区分初级和二级高速公路撞车事故.
- 用现实数据估计二次崩的发生率和相关的队列时间.
主要方法:
- 利用一个自我激发的时间点过程模型,区分具有自我激发功能的二次崩和具有背景速率的初级崩.
- 使用静止,正弦非静止和零碎非静止函数建模了背景速率,以捕捉交通变化.
- 将模型与佛罗里达州交通运输部的州际4号 (I-4) 高速公路 (2015-2017) 事故数据相匹配.
主要成果:
- 形非静止背景速率函数显示出与交通数据的优越匹配,准确地反映了每天和每周的撞车峰值.
- 据发现,二次撞车在I-4高速公路上的交通事故中占到15.09%.
- 模型参数允许估计二次碰撞概率和队列时间.
结论:
- 一个自我激发的时间点过程模型有效地区分了二次崩和初级崩.
- 背景速率的侧面模拟准确地捕捉了与交通相关的撞车模式.
- 二次事故占高速公路事故的很大一部分,突出了针对性安全干预的必要性.
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