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十年振荡提供了对南极海冰的熟练多年预测

Yusen Liu¹, Cheng Sun², Jianping Li^3,4

¹State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.

Nature communications

|December 13, 2023

概括

南极海冰显示了8至16年的振荡,与太平洋近十年振荡有关. 这种由热带太平洋变暖驱动的联系影响南极海冰的变化和可预测性.

科学领域:

气候科学气候科学
海洋学海洋学海洋学
大气科学大气科学

背景情况:

南极海冰的长期增加与北极海冰的减少形成鲜明对比.
最近 (2014-2018) 南极海冰的急剧减少突显了人们对不太了解的变化.
年间和十年级的海冰变化需要更好的预测模型.

研究的目的:

识别和描述南极海冰的十年振荡.
研究南极海冰变化和太平洋近十年振荡 (PQDO) 之间的关系.
了解推动南极海冰十年变化的物理机制及其可预测性.

主要方法:

分析卫星时代的观测数据.
使用合模型相互比较项目 (CMIP) 历史气候模拟.
进行心脏起器气候模型实验以隔离关键过程.

主要成果:

发现南极海冰十年振荡的发现,近期为8-16年.
在南极海冰振荡和PQDO之间显示出强烈的反对应关系 (r = -0.90).
识别来自热带太平洋的向极传播的罗斯比波列车作为远程连接机制.

结论:

PQDO通过热带太平洋引起的大气波与南极海冰十年的变化同步.
这些波浪削弱了阿蒙森海低,导致海冰通过增加的辐射和温暖的转移而融化.
基于PQDO的回归模型表明南极海冰的多年可预测性.

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Global Climate Change

Global Climate Change

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