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森林砍伐排放基线方法的不确定性以及对碳市场的影响
Hoong Chen Teo1,2, Nicole Hui Li Tan3,4, Qiming Zheng3,4,5
1Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore. hcteo@u.nus.edu.
Nature communications
|December 13, 2023
概括
估计碳信用的森林砍伐排放基线是具有挑战性的. 我们的分析揭示了这些估计的显著变化和不确定性,影响了碳市场的完整性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 林业管理 林业管理
背景情况:
- 司法范围内的避免砍伐森林的项目产生碳信用.
- 准确的森林砍伐排放基线对于这些项目的完整性至关重要.
- 当前的基线化方法面临着重大的稳定性挑战.
研究的目的:
- 评估森林砍伐排放基线方法的可变性,准确性和不确定性.
- 确定基线估计中不确定性的关键驱动因素.
- 为改善基线准确性和碳市场信任提供建议.
主要方法:
- 应用敏感性和变量重要性分析,以典型使用的基线方法和参数.
- 分析了来自全球2,794个司法管辖区的数据.
- 评估了不同方法和生物群的预测错误和不确定性水平.
主要成果:
- 中位数司法管辖区的森林砍伐排放基线变化为171% (90%范围:87%-440%) 的平均值.
- 预测误差的中位数是实际森林砍伐率的0.778倍 (90%范围:0.548-3.56).
- 68.0%的方法在中位管辖区的不确定性超过15%;热带和极地生物群的不确定性更高.
结论:
- 森林砍伐预测方法对基线不确定性有很大影响.
- 敏感性分析和整体方法可以减少变化和偏差.
- 改善基线估计对于提高碳市场完整性和信任至关重要.
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