在油轮货物处理操作中对石油泄漏风险的人为错误的评估
Muhammet Aydin1, Bunyamin Kamal1, Erkan Çakır2
1The Faculty of Turgut Kıran Maritime, T.C. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan University, Tersane Mahallesi Sahil Bulvarı No: 93, 53900, DerepazarıRize, Turkey.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|December 13, 2023
概括
在油轮货物处理过程中,人为错误导致石油泄漏. 这项研究使用模糊贝叶斯网络 (FBN) 模型确定了因果因素,强调货物计算错误对于防止海洋污染至关重要.
科学领域:
- 海洋环境科学 海洋环境科学
- 海上安全工程是海上安全工程.
- 风险分析 风险分析
背景情况:
- 油轮上的货物处理业务是海洋污染的主要来源.
- 人类错误被广泛认为是这些操作事故的主要原因.
- 提高船舶安全和海洋环境保护需要控制人为因素.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种新的模型,用于识别油污泄漏的因果因素,即油轮货运操作期间船员错误造成的油污泄漏.
- 分析定性和定量因果因素之间的概率相关性.
- 为防止泄漏重复和保护海洋环境提供见解.
主要方法:
- 利用模糊贝叶斯网络 (FBN) 方法来建模因果关系.
- 执行敏感性分析和验证程序以确保准确性.
- 在已识别的因果因素之间调查了概率相关性.
主要成果:
- 确定了在装载和卸载 (L&D) 操作期间导致石油泄漏的关键因果因素.
- 货物计算错误被发现对L&D期间的泄漏事件产生了最重要的影响.
- FBN模型有效地分析了风险评估的概率相关性.
结论:
- 控制货物处理中的人为错误对于海洋环境保护至关重要.
- 开发的模型为防止石油泄漏提供了有价值的见解.
- 调查结果可以为船舶管理,P&I俱乐部和监管机构的损失预防策略提供信息.
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